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31.
The groundwater downstream of a former sewage irrigation farm in Berlin is contaminated with ammonium (NH4 +) and para-toluenesulfonamide (p-TSA), besides other anthropogenic pollutants. In the field, in situ removal of NH4 + by gaseous oxygen (O2) and air injection is currently being tested. A laboratory column experiment using aquifer material and groundwater from the site was performed to determine whether this remediation technology is also feasible to reduce high p-TSA concentrations in the anoxic groundwater. First, the column was operated under anoxic conditions. Later, compressed air was introduced into the system to simulate oxic conditions. Samples were collected from the column outlet before and after the addition of compressed air. The experiment revealed that whereas p-TSA was not removed under anoxic conditions, it was almost fully eliminated under oxic conditions. Results were modelled using a transient one-dimensional solute transport model. The degradation rate constants for p-TSA increased from 2.8E−06 to 7.5E−05 s–1 as a result of microbial adaption to the change of redox conditions. Results show that O2 injection into an anoxic aquifer is a successful strategy for p-TSA remediation.  相似文献   
32.
Ground‐based handheld thermal infrared imagery was used for the detection of small‐scale groundwater springs at the northwestern beach of Spiekeroog Island (northwest Germany). The surveys and in situ measurements of electric conductivity were carried out from shortly before to shortly after low tide along the low water line. Several brackish groundwater discharge springs with a diameter of 1–2 cm were observed along the beach at a distance of 2–3 m above the low water line. The high fresh water portion in the discharging water derives from the fresh water lens in the center of the island. During cold weather, the springs were identified by a significantly increased temperature (3–5 °C higher) and a lower electric conductivity (<10 mS/cm) in contrast to the surrounding sea water (1–2 °C, >30 mS/cm). During warmer weather conditions, an inverse temperature contrast was observed. The measurements confirm the applicability of thermal imagery for the detection of small‐scale groundwater discharge locations as an extension to the established method of aerial thermal scans and prove the existence of submarine groundwater seeps in porous systems. A ground‐based handheld thermal infrared imagery survey enables a precise installation of sampling devices as, for example, seepage meters.  相似文献   
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This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education.Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified.In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns should focus on: (a) increasing tourists' knowledge of Katla, jökulhlaup and other volcanic hazards and (b) increasing tourist and employee awareness of the early warning and information system and appropriate behavioural response if a warning is issued. Further, tourism employees should be required to participate in emergency training and evacuation exercises annually. These efforts are timely given that Katla is expected to erupt in the near future and international tourism is an expanding industry in Þórsmörk.  相似文献   
34.
The Eyjafjöll AD 2010 eruption is an extraordinary event in that it led to widespread and unprecedented disruption to air travel over Europe – a region generally considered to be free from the hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Following the onset of the eruption, satellite imagery demonstrated the rapid transportation of ash by westerly winds over mainland Europe, eventually expanding to large swathes of the North Atlantic Ocean and the eastern seaboard of Canada. This small‐to‐intermediate size eruption and the dispersal pattern observed are not particularly unusual for Icelandic eruptions within a longer‐term perspective. Indeed, the Eyjafjöll eruption is a relatively modest eruption in comparison to some of the 20 most voluminous eruptions that have deposited cryptotephra in sedimentary archives in mainland Europe, such as the mid Younger Dryas Vedde Ash and the mid Holocene Hekla 4 tephra. The 2010 eruption, however, highlights the critical role that weather patterns play in the distribution of a relatively small amount of ash and also highlights the spatially complex dispersal trajectories of tephra in the atmosphere. Whether or not the preservation of the Eyjafjöll 2010 tephra in European proxy archives will correspond to the extensive distributions mapped in the atmosphere remains to be seen. The Eyjafjöll 2010 event highlights our increased vulnerability to natural hazards rather than the unparalleled explosivity of the event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
35.
Eruptions in the subglacial Katla caldera, South Iceland, release catastrophic jokulhlaups (meltwater floods). The ice surface topography divides the caldera into three drainage sectors (Ko, So and En sectors) that drain onto Myrdalssandur, Solheimasandur and Markarfljot plains, respectively. In historical times, floods from the Ko sector have been dominant, with only two recorded So events. Geological records indicate that floods from the En sector occur every 500–800 years. A probabilistic model for an eruption is formulated in general terms by a stochastic parameter that simulates a series giving the time interval in years between two consecutive events. The model also contains a Markovian matrix that controls the location of the event and thereby what watercourse is hit by the flood. A record of Katla eruptions since the 8th and the 9th century a.d., and geological information of volcanogenic floods towards the west over the last 8,000 years is used to calibrate the model. The model is then used to find the probabilities for floods from the three sectors: Ko, So and En. The simulations predict that the most probable eruption interval for the En sector and the So sector is several times smaller than the average time interval, implying infrequent periods of high activity in these sectors. A correlation is found between the magnitude of eruptions and the following time intervals. Using the statistical approach and considering this magnitude–time interval correlation, the probability of an eruption in Katla volcano is considered to be 20% within the next 10 years. This compares to a probability of 93% if only a simple average is considered. These probabilities do not take account of long-term eruption precursors and should therefore be regarded as minimum values.  相似文献   
36.
In this article, we introduce a conceptual framework for systematic identification and assessment of sources of uncertainty in simulation models. This concept builds on a novel typology of uncertainty in model validation and extends the GIScience research focus on uncertainty in spatial data to uncertainty in simulation modelling. Such a concept helps a modeller to interpret and handle uncertainty in order to efficiently optimise a model and better understand simulation results.

To illustrate our approach, we apply the proposed framework for uncertainty assessment to the TREE LIne Model (TREELIM), an individual-based model that simulates forest succession at the alpine tree line. Using this example, uncertainty is identified in the modelling workflow during conceptualisation, formalisation, parameterisation, analysis and validation. With help of a set of indicators we quantify the emerging uncertainties and assess the overall model uncertainty as a function of all occurring sources of uncertainty.

An understanding of the sources of uncertainty in an ecological model proves beneficial for: (1) developing a structurally valid model in a systematic way; (2) deciding if further refinement of the conceptual model is beneficial for the modelling purpose; and (3) interpreting the overall model uncertainty by understanding its sources. Our approach results in a guideline for assessing uncertainty in the validation of simulation models in a feasible and defensible way, and thus functions as a toolbox for modellers. We consider this work as a contribution towards a general concept of uncertainty in spatially explicit simulation models.  相似文献   
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Theories that link plant strategies and abiotic filters discriminate between three strategies: competitive, ruderal or stress-tolerant species, and suggest that functional diversity is higher at intermediate values along the gradients of productivity and disturbance. The mechanism by which abiotic filters screen plant traits in aquatic plant communities has been poorly tested and has led to contrasting results. The present study aimed to test whether functional diversity and abundance of life-history traits corresponding to morphology, fecundity and longevity of aquatic plants were linked to disturbance and productivity. Fifty-nine shallow lakes that were arranged along a gradient of productivity (estimated through total phosphorus concentration) and drought-disturbance frequency were sampled for aquatic plants. Species traits were documented and functional diversity was calculated (richness, dispersion and evenness) for each lake. Increasing total phosphorus concentration was associated with decreased functional richness and dispersion but not functional evenness. Functional diversity did not differ according to disturbance frequency, regardless of the index that was measured. High productivity favoured floating species with storage organs and vegetative reproduction, especially at low disturbance frequency. For all disturbance frequencies, low productivity favoured small species without storage organs and sexual reproduction. The present study partly supports the theoretical model. At high productivity levels, because phytoplankton is a better competitor for light than aquatic plants, plant traits are screened stringently, and species with traits that allow them to reach the photic zone are selected.  相似文献   
40.
The relationship between winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined for the time period 1860–2300. This study uses model output to extend recently reported observational results to multi-century time scales. Nine ensemble members are used in two Global Climate Models with forcing evolving from pre-industrial conditions through the so-called A1B scenario in which carbon dioxide stabilizes at 720 ppm by 2100. Throughout, the NAO generates an east-west dipole pattern of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies with oppositely signed centers of action over the Labrador and Barents Seas. During the positive polarity of the NAO, SIC increases over the Labrador Sea due to wind-driven equatorward advection of ice, and SIC decreases over the Barents Sea due to wind-driven poleward transport of heat within the mixed layer of the ocean. Although this NAO-driven SIC variability pattern can always be detected, it accounts for a markedly varying fraction of the total sea ice variability depending on the strength of the forced sea ice extent trend. For the first half of the 20th century or 1990 control conditions, the NAO-driven SIC pattern accounts for almost a third of the total SIC variance. In the context of the long term winter sea ice retreat from 1860 to 2300, the NAO-driven SIC pattern is robustly observable, but accounts for only 2% of the total SIC variance. The NAO-driven SIC dipole retreats poleward with the retreating marginal ice zone, and its Barents Sea center of action weakens. Results presented here underscore the idea that the NAO’s influence on Arctic climate is robustly observable, but time dependent in its form and statistical importance.  相似文献   
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